Impact of 2022 P8 Scores updated by the DfE
The DfE have updated the 2022 Attainment 8 averages and have published the revised scores. The Attainment 8 averages change between October and February because students will have had papers resubmitted for remarking and challenges made to grades awarded.
All 2022 grades have been finalised, and so the DfE have updated the Attainment 8 averages. This happens every year that P8 tables are published.
As the 2022 Attainment 8 averages are used to calculate predicted P8 scores for your students and schools on Pupil Progress, we have updated our platform to use the most accurate set; the revised scores published in February 2023.
How have the Attainment 8 Averages changed?
We have analysed the changes between the provisional scores published in October 2022 and the updated ones in February 2023. On average, the overall Attainment 8 average has increased by 0.11 between the provisional scores and the revised scores.
In contextual terms this means that, since all KS4 grades have been moderated and finalised, the average student has increased their Attainment 8 score by 0.11 of a grade across their ten P8 contributing subject scores (including Maths and English counting twice). As this isn’t possible for a single student to do, it means that if you took 9 students, one of those students will have had a single grade (that is counted in P8) moderated up by one grade.
What is the impact on our current P8 predictions?
The update would mean that you might see your schools P8 prediction decrease by approximately 0.11 per 100 students (if there have been no other changes to students' grades). Of course, it won’t be a decrease of 0.11 exactly as it will depend on your cohort’s KS2 average scaled score, but it gives you a ballpark figure.
If your P8 has decreased by more than approximately 0.11, then you can assume that your students' grades have decreased since before February. If they have gone down by less than approximately 0.11, then you have actually seen an increase in student attainment since your last review.
How does this affect the accuracy of our P8 Predictions?
This change expected and totally normal, and improves the accuracy of your school P8 prediction for September as much as can possibly be done at this point in the year regarding the national figures. Of course there is always room for improvement of your Teacher Predicted Grades which we at Pupil Progress are happy to support you to do!
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