Impact of 2023 P8 Scores updated by the DfE

The DfE have published the 2023 Provisional Attainment 8 averages. These are provisional as the Attainment 8 averages change between October and February because students will have had papers resubmitted for remarking and challenges made to grades awarded.

As the 2022 Attainment 8 averages are used to calculate predicted P8 scores for your students and schools on Pupil Progress, we have updated our platform to use the most accurate set; the revised scores published in October 2023.

How have the Attainment 8 Averages changed?

We have analysed the changes between the provisional scores published in October 2022 and the updated ones in February 2023. On average, the overall Attainment 8 average has decreased by 3.38 between 2023 provisional scores and the 2022 revised scores.

This means that the average student has decreased their Attainment 8 score by 3.38 of a grade across their ten P8 contributing subject scores (including Maths and English counting twice). 

To put this into context, this is the equivalent of two thirds of all 2023 students getting a grade lower in 3 of their subjects, and a third of students in 4 subjects, compared to students with the same KS2 prior attainment in 2022.

Was this decrease in Attainment 8 expected?

Essentially yes; ofqual we required to reduce the number of students getting higher grades, to bring the percentage of students achieving each grade in to closer alignment with the distribution seen in 2019 before covid. As Teacher Assessed Grades awarded from 2020 and 2021 saw a large increase in the number of higher grades being awarded, Ofqual was mandated to bring the distribution back down over two years in 2022 and 2023.

This is shown by the lower Attainment 8 score of students on a same KS2 scaled score between 2022 and 2023.

What is the impact on our current P8 predictions?

The update would mean that you might see your schools P8 prediction increase by a maximum of approximately 3.38. But before you get too excited, it is unlikely it increase by 3.38 as it will depend:

  • on your cohort’s KS2 average scaled score
  • the number of students who were already below the 2022 minimum threshold (capped) value
  • the number of students who are now the 2023 capped value


The minimum threshold value is used to avoid seriously negative P8 scores of individual students having a disproportionate affect on the P8 score. So if a student has a P8 of -7.06, then the higher (less negative) capped score will apply instead. The minimum threshold value allowed for a student is also dependent on their KS2 scaled scores, and has increased from by 0.03 on average.

How does this affect the accuracy of our P8 Predictions?

This change is expected and totally normal, and improves the accuracy of your school P8 prediction for August 2024 as much as can possibly be done at this point in the year regarding the national figures. The A8 figures should now stabilise around the 2023 levels and so this is the best value to use for future estimations of P8 scores. 

Of course there is always room for improving the accuracy and transparency of your grades used to inform Teacher Predicted Grades used in P8 predictions which we at Pupil Progress are happy to support you to do!

Further questions or support?

If you have any questions, just reply to this email and our support team will be happy to help. If you'd like to discuss this further, please use the link below to schedule a meeting at a time that suits you:

Barnaby Grimble

Co-founder | Chief Product Officer



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