Handling significant grade boundaries changes

A-Level Grade boundaries increased or stayed the same in 71 out of 86 courses across all exam boards. Of those 71, it’s worth noting that only 4 subjects saw significantly increased grade boundaries; OCR Maths A, OCR Biology B, Edexcel Biology A and Eduqas Biology A. 

The change in GCSE Grade boundaries were less varied across subjects and exam boards than in previous years, but on average still increased compared to 2024. The biggest increases were seen in 

• Maths Higher- Edexcel

• Chemistry Higher - OCR B and Edexcel

• Physics Foundation - OCR B

• French Higher - Eduqas

• Psychology - AQA and OCR

For all the above, excluding Maths, these have smaller cohorts sitting it and are therefore more susceptible to bigger grade boundary shifts.  MFL historically has had the most year-to-year variation and does make it more challenging for teachers to give accurate predictions, however this appears to be settling out now. However, the MfL courses the new year 11 group are sitting have a different exam structure for some of the units; our Pupil Progress trackers have advisory grade boundaries pre-set for you to choose from to match the expected changes for June 2026.

As the grade boundaries were higher, it can therefore be deduced that students achieved more raw marks than the 2024 exam series, and the boundaries were increased to keep the bell curve proportionate between 2025 and 2024. 

In normal years, boundaries typically increase each year as teachers learn from the previous exam series - and the 9-1 courses have now been running for between 6 and 7 years now. They tailor resources to suit their students, they improve performance in the exams developing better methodologies and practices. Fundamentally they become better at delivering the specification. 

As we move further from the covid years impact on secondary education, this looks to be a gradual return to levels of achievement in KS4 and 5 matching pre-pandemic trends.

💡 The result: Students achieve better marks and boundaries have to increase to keep the bell curve proportionate year on year.

Useful information for Performance Reviews

“My results were down compared to my predictions because the grade boundaries went up.”

Whilst grade boundaries changes are often referred to results review conversations, there is very little point in using this idea to justify unexpected performance. Likewise with the claim that the paper was harder than usual. 

The reality is that if grade boundaries are higher, then it is because students across the country are achieving higher marks. This can be due to nationally-relevant contextual reasons; the exam paper was easier/ more straight-forward/ covered more commonly well-taught topics or skills. Or, for this year, we are seeing less of a negative impact from the covid years. 

If the conversation is about a subject with significantly different grade boundaries, asking the subject leader for their take on why this was for that specific course, for example:

• change in question language styles

• questions on niche parts of the course

• issues with the questions recognised by the exam board

• an intended change in exam question structure e.g. a switch from multiple choice to prose question

• Changes to internally assessed units

The changes should not be an excuse for underperforming expectations, as nationally students scored low marks and the bell curves have been standardised to reflect this. Instead, it should be a solutions focused conversation about the next year's curriculum and if there are lessons learned from this situation to ensure students can still achieve highly even if there are further unexpectedly low scoring papers. 

Either way, the conversation should centre on identifying where to focus teaching and the best ways to maximise marks as this will maximise achievement regardless of the grade boundaries. Can your subject leaders and teachers identify parts of the course where groups of your new year 11 students are underperforming? And what are the next steps to close these gaps?

Using Pupil Progress supports with the accuracy of grade predictions based on raw marks across the full course, and provides tools to help teachers to identify where they can close gaps and raise attainment most effectively, helping you to have more action-based conversations around data 

How choosing realistic grade boundaries builds winning results

The 2025 boundaries are the most recent and most valid picture that we have; adding 3-4% to your boundaries provides a reasonable level of challenge to your students. This also provides some insulation in case the boundaries are significantly higher in some subjects. 

Remember that the targets set for students, whether ‘realistic’ or ‘aspirational’ are designed to motivate students. To create a mindset that evokes energy, effort and application. If grade boundaries that students are being measured against are too high, then students will feel more demotivated and that they are not making progress.

By choosing realistic grade boundaries you will be helping your staff and students to show when they are making good progress against their targets and establish where they need to focus their efforts. 

Effective tracking and monitoring will identify and highlight the most important information required for the highest level of learning to take place: what do the students actually need to learn in order to progress? 

If you have a system that tells you both (where they are and what they need to learn), then everyone is winning! 

Written by Barnaby Grimble, Co-founder and Chief Product Officer